Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 0.015750 0.017827 0.020094 0.022753 0.025790 0.029155 0.033173
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 0.012694 0.015569 0.018981 0.023344 0.028793 0.035397 0.044046
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.011048 0.014291 0.018365 0.023884 0.031207 0.040646 0.053826
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.009574 0.012925 0.017330 0.023585 0.032304 0.044125 0.061530
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.008476 0.011870 0.016508 0.023366 0.033345 0.047485 0.069299
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.007608 0.011004 0.015810 0.023178 0.034319 0.050745 0.077181
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.007102 0.010587 0.015678 0.023752 0.036410 0.055784 0.088241
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.006469 0.009905 0.015071 0.023518 0.037197 0.058856 0.096487
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.006159 0.009679 0.015122 0.024287 0.039611 0.064696 0.109879
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.005551 0.008924 0.014266 0.023497 0.039369 0.066122 0.115867
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.005103 0.008382 0.013700 0.023120 0.039756 0.068607 0.123936
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.004620 0.007739 0.012907 0.022273 0.039229 0.069414 0.128987
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.004467 0.007651 0.013053 0.023097 0.041797 0.076088 0.146005
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.004288 0.007501 0.013080 0.023712 0.044050 0.082434 0.163221
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.004114 0.007344 0.013075 0.024260 0.046218 0.088823 0.181292
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003834 0.006969 0.012643 0.023956 0.046693 0.091935 0.192917
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003591 0.006643 0.012273 0.023733 0.047298 0.095351 0.205586
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.003375 0.006349 0.011937 0.023542 0.047940 0.098895 0.218957
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.003269 0.006259 0.011984 0.024126 0.050251 0.106193 0.241765
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003077 0.005985 0.011649 0.023887 0.050774 0.109662 0.256051
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003010 0.005953 0.011793 0.024670 0.053602 0.118540 0.284506
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.002786 0.005585 0.011225 0.023867 0.052802 0.119066 0.292336
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.002620 0.005327 0.010863 0.023483 0.052916 0.121720 0.305893